Greg and Deb's Travel Blog

A review of my June data leads to some interesting observations.

There were approximately 19,700,000 new reported cases of Covid-19 globally in June.

There were approximately 2,200,00 new reported cases of Covid-19 in Australia in June.

In South Australia there were approximately 75,700 new reported cases and 87 new deaths due to Covid-19 in June. With our daily death and hospitalisation numbers remaining fairly level.

Globally the rate of Covid-19 new reported daily infections in June consolidated in a broad range centred around the 650,000 mark, similar to that of May. But in the last 8 days of the month there were a few spikes in the data, suggesting a possible new uptrend in the number of reported infections has begun.

A similar pattern has developed in Australia with a rising trend from the May June range centered on about 27500 new daily reported infections.

I hope this is just a blip and not the start of a new wave.

Getting back to Australia, there is a rising trend in the number of new daily hospital admissions due to Covid-19 and the daily death rate appears to be in a new uptrend. See the graphs below.

In Australia the Virus Reproduction Rate (14 day Av) has started rising again from a low of around 0.5 at the start of June. This appears to confirm the possible start of a new wave.

The percentage of people hospitalised after acquiring the disease that require treatment in ICU has stabilised at around 3.5%.

While all this has been going on the War in Ukraine continues, with numerous charges of War Crimes being leveled at Russia.

The world is in uncertain times, energy prices around the world are rising and food shortages accompanied by rising food costs are also occurring globally. Interest rates are steeply rising as is inflation.

Personally the month saw 6 new cases of Covid-19 with the family across Australia, thankfully most cases were mild, K being the exception.

We had the birth of our 7^th grandchild, a boy, both him and him mum are doing well.

Our dog graduated from Level 3 training at Obedience Classes, apparently he is now an obedient dog!! We have now started agility training with him, hopefully he/we will enjoy it going forward.

You can find my June 2022 blog entry by following the link below.

#30 June 2022 The Pandemic has stabilised, or has it!!

Stay safe and well out there.

Covid-19 comes home.

It’s been a month of change.

We started the month not knowing anyone first hand who hand had Covid-19, now we have had family, friends and work colleagues come down with the disease. Thankfully all have come through it unscathed so far. It is really strange, many couples we know have had one person in the relationship get Covid-19 and the other not, even after spending isolation together.

In South Australia and broader Australia we have seen Covid-19 restrictions steadily withdrawn and life is getting back to near pre Covid-19 conditions. The strangest one for me is the dropping of mask mandates in most areas of life. I still can’t go into crowded areas without a mask on, and it seem about 20% of the population are the same.

My charts seem to indicate that April was a month of decline and stabilisation of the impact of Covid-19. The most worrying indicator is the death rate of those who get the disease, in Australia this has had a slight upward trend along with the numbers requiring ventilators.

April saw the world add another 14 million reported cases of Covid-19, just over 2.7% of the total number of cases reported since the start of the pandemic. Approximately 200,000 people lost their lives to Covid-19 worldwide.  Australia added another 135 thousand cases, just over 2% of the total number of Covid-19 cases reported in Australia since the pandemic started, and another 1252 people lost their lives due to the disease.

My graphs can be seen via the link below.

Covid-19 charts January 2022 to end april 2022

Chart analysis

The number of people in hospital in Australia due to Covid-19 appears to be reaching a peak/plateau at around 3200 on any given recent day.

The number of people in hospital with Covid-19 on ventilators is fluctuating around 150 over recent days. Representing approximately 4.6% of people in hospital with Covid-19. NSW and Victoria appear to be having ICU number rising.

The trend in the daily number of people reported as dying of Covid-19 is up, this has been in this trend since mid-March. It has not yet reached the plateau shown in hospitalisation numbers. The rise appears to be being driven by NSW and Victoria.

The Australian Virus Reproduction Rate, on my calculations, appears to have found a band in which it fluctuates, 0.5 to 1.25., with a tendency for the ratio to be under 1 for most of the recent times.

The number of new daily recorded cases reached a 3-month peak at the end of March and has been steadily trending down since then, interestingly this has occurred independent of isolated surges in the number of tests carried out.

Daily Testing Numbers v Positive Test Numbers is showing that at least 50% of people getting PCR tested are showing up positive, this is relatively independent of the number of people tested.

Globally the world has seen a relatively steep decline in the number of new reported daily Covid-19 cases. Falling from a peak of 4,519,636 new cases on 20 January 2022 to consistent figures fluctuating around 750,000 +/- 10%. These numbers are approximately the same as the peaks of the pre-Delta / Omicron variants.

Australia is still a long way from reaching its pre-Delta / Omicron variant levels. While there is a moderate down trend in the graph, it is still around 25 times the former peak numbers of approximately 1700, with recent case numbers in the order of 45,000. We have a long way to go.

The percentage of people hospitalised and in ICU has been trending down since early February, and appears to be stabilising at a little over 4%.

To see my April 2022 blog follow the link below.

#28 April 2022 Covid-19 is declining world-wide, but comes close to home

Australia is firmly in a Sixth Covid-19 wave. Cases have continued to rise since the start of March from the low 20,000’s to current highs in the high 60,000’s. Our death rate seems to have plateaued at around 40 per day. Daily hospitalisations are still increasing, currently approaching 6000 per day. A good sign is that the number of people requiring a ventilator continues to show a steady state at around 100. By my figures the virus reproduction rate is sitting in a band between 0.5 and 1.35. For us to move forward this has to be consistently kept under 1.

The rest of the world appears to have found a new, higher band of continuing infection, in the order of 850,000 to 2,200,00. Many countries are reporting their highest Covid-19 case rate since the start of the pandemic, but the death rates are slowing dramatically.

The war in Ukraine continues, with Russia not making the “easy” progress they may have thought they would achieve. Talks of a peace agreement are still being made, but Russia has shown no firm signs of this.

The two charts below show the Global and Australian Daily New Covid-19 Cases.

Follow the link below to find my March 2022 Covid-19 Diary

#27 March 2022 Covid-19 Australia’s 6th Wave and a Global Steady State.

February 2022 Summary of what went down this month.

The world had another 60,952,275 reported cases of Covid-19, with 280706 people losing their lives to the disease.

Covid-19 came home this month to our family, friends, and neighbours, with a family member succumbing to it and losing his life, peacefully thank goodness. We also had a niece, and her family all contract the disease, as well as a couple of neighbours, thank fully all have had mild cases and have either recovered now or are well on the way to recovery.

Russia invaded Ukraine, the war started on 23 February, on the pretext of annexing pro-Russian areas of Ukraine to support the people who wanted to re-join Russia.

The invasion began with a coordinated cyber attack on critical Ukrainian infrastructure and targeted armed attacks on its military bases and airports.

The war has not gone too smoothly or as easy as Russia may have expected, with the Ukraine armed forces using the tactical knowledge of Russia gained through joint military operations.

The free world has retaliated against Russia by imposing economic sanctions on the country, it President Vladmir Putin, many politicians, Armed Forces leaders and Russian Oligarchs. Russian banks have also been isolated from the worlds payment system, essentially freezing its economy.

Russia has today put its military on nuclear standby, in response to what it calls western military actions.

The Ukrainian President has agreed to meet with Russia to discuss the situation and to try and find a resolution without more bloodshed.

On the home front in Australia, we have a state election due to be held on 19 March, and so we are in full election mode in SA. In the federal sphere an election is due to be held in the next 120 days, so the government and opposition parties are both in election mode.

Our politics and politicians all seem quite secondary with the actions in Europe putting things in perspective, we really do live in the “Lucky Country”.

The following charts of where Australia sits in this phase of the pandemic paints a picture of vastly improved situations across most measures. All major indices I am using are ether showing a strong downward trend or are stabilising at “acceptable” levels.

It looks like we have come through the 5^th “Omicron” Wave.

The world graph following the Australian data shows the world is exiting the Omicron variant wave.

Click the link following to see my Australian data in chart form

Australian Charts to end Feb 22

and here is my chart of how the world is going with Covid-19

Life seems to be getting back to normal in the northern hemisphere of the world, with most countries drastically reducing their Covid-19 restrictions, if not removing them completely.

In the southern hemisphere a more cautious approach is being adopted. Australia has opened its borders to the world again, however, WA is still isolating itself from all on the outside.

My February 2022 Covid -19 Blog can be found here

#26 February 2022 Omicron fades away

The world has gone from 286 million cases of Covid-19 to 374 million cases in a month, a 30.8% increase in Covid-19 cases in just one month!

Australia has gone from 389 thousand cases of Covid-19 to 2.541 million cases in a month, a 552% increase in Covid-19 cases in just one month! We went from a one of the most contained countries in the world to one of the most infected in just 31 days!! Australia was listed by the USA as one of a few countries with a Red Alert travel warning. But somehow, we are coping, our hospital systems haven’t crashed, although they are very stretched and our health services in general are under enormous stress.

Covid-19 made its way into our extended family, a niece and her family all got Covid, it took a family Uncle from us. It makes it real when the people you care for get it.

Here are my Covid-19 charts for the world and Australia to the end of January 2022.

World chart to end of Jan 2022

Australian chart to end of Jan 2022

For my daily diary, please follow this link for January 2022.

#25 January 2022 The month of Omicron

In the last month the world has seen over 23 million new cases of Covid-19 and over 202 thousand people have died of the disease.

Australia has had over 178 thousand new cases of Covid-19 and 213 deaths due to it.

The Omicron Variant has seen the numbers of new cases surge all around the world and particularly noticeable for us here in Australia.  In South Australia our case numbers went from under 1000 to over 8000 in the month! Thankfully the death rate didn’t follow the same rise.

Australia seems to be facing a crisis in health care this month, if we can struggle through January we should be ok, I hope. Continue reading →

In the last month there have been over 16 million  new cases of Covid-19 world wide, with over 227,000 deaths.In Australia we had over 41 thousand new cases of Covid-19, with over 277 deaths.Australia has delayed opening its borders to the world for 2 weeks to see what is going on with Omicron.

We had an eventful stay at the Mayfair Hotel in Adelaide. They allow dogs to stay with you so we used our Great State discount vouchers and booked 2 nights early in the month. Unfortunately Louis had a tummy bug and we thought it was best to cut our losses after one night. It was lots of fun and he got totally spoilt by the staff at the hotel.

Deb did a couple of study courses in the month and is delving into interesting areas of study.WA slammed shut its borders to us again just as we opened them to the Eastern plague states.

As usual follow the link below for my monthly Covid Blog.

Stay safe out there people.

#23 November 2021 Looks like Omicron is riding the 5th wave

In the last month there have been another 36 million cases of Covid-19 globally with another 200,000 deaths, at home in Australia we had our worst month of the pandemic, with 65,000 new cases of Covid-19 and around 400 deaths. Globally the world passed 5 million deaths due to Covid-19.

But for Australia it is now time to open up. All Australian governments, except WA have given up on the eradication strategy to adopt a live with it regime. It’s going to be a rough time for all here, accepting the inevitable deaths is probably the hardest thing for all to get their heads around. Our hospital and medical systems are going to be placed under enormous strain and a lot of very hard calls will need to be made.

31 October marked the last day that Australia was formally closed to free travel, fully vaccinated people will be allowed to reenter the country without quarantine, with authorities relying on a self reporting and testing system. This may not go well.

On a brighter note, we managed to get away with family for a short holiday down at Victor Harbor, and spent a bit of time on the beach and just enjoying our time together.

At the end of the month I took a flight to Perth to see Pat, Alyce and Harry. With WA not opening its borders anytime soon I am not sure when I will be able to get back over there, maybe not until next year sometime. Harry is growing so quickly and marking all those childhood milestones, more teeth, walking, chatting anyway (wish we knew what he was saying!) Was so good to spend a short time with them, they are doing so well.

Our puppy, Louis, has had an eventful month. Got over, eating rat poison, a bleed behind his eye, desexing and a bleed in his bowel. In among all that he progressed from Level 1 to Level 2 in Doggy Obedience school.

We aren’t sure what November holds for us, but it will be anything but dull, I am sure. Tessa finishes her Year 12 exams, another grandchild leaving school!

We had news this morning that a friend’s daughter and her family in the USA has contracted Covid-19 for the 2^nd time, even after being vaccinated between infections. Our thoughts are with them all as they recover, again.

Stay safe out there everyone.

My October Covid-19 Diary can be found here, just click the link.

#22 October 2021 The Fourth Wave is over, what next?

As the global 4^th wave of Covid-19 went into decline the pandemic smacked Australia. With firstly NSW then Victoria going through rapid widespread infections throughout the 2 states. The rest of Australia closed their borders to the 2 states and that continues.

Melbourne gained the dubious honour of the world’s most locked down city.

The ASX lost 4.5% over the month.

On a bright note, the vaccination rates in Australia have take off very well and the country is looking to start opening up both internally and externally. The federal government hopes it can start easing our International borders from mid December. NSW, Victoria and the ACT lead the charge in vaccination rates.

The charts below shows graphically how the pandemic has played out so far. Looking at the global pattern evolving it seem likely that the world will endure a 5^th wave starting in late October/ early November. The peaks of such a 5^th wave are likely to be lower than the previous waves, and the duration is likely to be less, somewhere around 2.5 months long.

Global Chart

My Blog for September can be found via the following link.

#21 September 2021 We ride the 4th wave

Stay safe out there.